2004 Presidental Election Prediction
Brandan Davies
POLS 515
Professor Cigler
02 November 2004
"Presidential Prediction for 2004"
The 2004 presidential election as in all preceding presidential elections will be decided in the Electoral College. The process that I intend to use to determine and predict the allocation of these votes is simple. I will simply analyze each state and the issues and or values that its population is predominantly concerned with, and then align those values with the values of the candidate. Incorporating that knowledge with scientific polling results I will use reason to predict who will be awarded that states electoral votes. Upon the conclusion of analyzing the states I will add up the electoral votes each candidate will receive and deduct from that information, which will be the next President. To comply with the length requirements of this assignment I will predominantly be discussing the "swing states" and how they will contribute their electoral votes.
In discussing each individual state, I will incorporate trending as well as the most current polling data, as well as each candidates ability to align himself with the issues of that state, there ability to mobilize there core voter base, as well as attract additional voters.
I will begin with the republican candidate the current President George Bush. President Bush has done an excellent job of keeping the states he won in the 2000 election; he will retain control of 28 of the 30 states that gave him the presidency. Upon reviewing trending and current poling data it can be concluded that the president will receive large victories in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. (realclearpoliticas.com) Thus giving the...
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