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Reducing launch costs: a lower limit?
by Jeff Foust
Monday, September 27, 2004
A central tenet of the faith held by advocates, entrepreneurs, and others in an expanded presence in space is that launch costs must, and can, come down. These people will often debate endlessly the means for lowering these costs—reusable launch vehicles, big dumb boosters, or exotic technologies like a space elevator—and even what the magic price point is: $1,000, $500, or $100 a pound, and sometimes lower. However, all will agree that launch costs today are far too high to permit the commercialization and exploration of space they all desire.
History, however, has not been encouraging to these people. There have been many efforts by the public and private sector over the last few decades to develop vehicles that can break through any magic cost-per-pound barrier and open up the solar system to exploration and development. None, though, can be considered a success. While a few efforts actually flew, like the Space Shuttle, they fell far short of the goals and expectations of the developers and the larger community to significantly lower launch costs. Far more projects never made it off the launch pad or runway, crippled by technology or funding problems.
These failures have not dissuaded some from trying yet again to develop expendable and reusable vehicles that promise steep reductions in launch costs. However, there are a few skeptics out there who caution that, like Coronado’s futile quest for the mythical Seven Cities of Cibola, these ventures are seeking launch costs goals that may prove unattainable. Making space access more affordable, they argue, requires understanding the fundamental factors that drive launch costs.
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