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Joe Guy's Sports Betting How-To # 1

Joe Guy's Sports Betting How-To # 1
by Terry Smith
© 2008 – Creative Commons     Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported    
The first thing you have to know is that sports betting is a conflict, a war if you would, between
you and your bookie   - a person who does not have your best interests in mind.
Your bookie is trying to lure you into making a wager, and assuming a risk, for which you will
be inadequately compensated. Such a wager is called an “underlay”.
If he offers too high a return he will have to pay off too much and lose money. If he offers too
low a return, he will get no bets and again lose money. His is the art of making the odds just
right, high enough to draw you in, but low enough to cause you to lose money over the long
run.
Because of this, almost all the book's games will be underlays. You have one advantage and
one advantage only over the book. He has to take your bet. What you have to do is spot what's
called an “overlay”, that is, a game where he has set the odds (or the line rather as the odds are
fixed 11/10 in football) so that you are adequately compensated for assuming the risk that the
team you select won't cover the spread.
The spread is a handicap given one team, the one perceived to be the weaker team in the
contest.
Once upon a time, bookies offered only odds on football games and had a hard time getting
bets on certain lop-sided games if it was apparent to all that one team was going to smash the
other. Even if they offered 100-1 it was a wasted bet to bet on the weaker team. In order to get
any action at all they had to offer odds that would ruin them if there was an upset (and upsets
happen!)
But suppose the weaker team started the game with the score 7-0 in their favour? Could the
stronger team still win? Ok, they're better, but are they more than 7 points better? Suppose
they are. Are they 10 points better, 14 points better?
All of a sudden this walk-over game turns into a sporting...